The 30th Conference of the Parties (COP 30) to the UNFCCC will be held in November 2025 in Belém, Brazil. This session comes at a crucial time, as global climate pledges remain inadequate to limit warming to safe levels.
Climate Goals Under Strain
The 2015 Paris Agreement sought to keep global temperature rise below 2°C, with efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. Yet, the UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2024 warns current commitments could push warming to 2.6–2.8°C, or even 3.1°C without stronger action.
Economic Risks for Asia and India
Developing Asia faces severe risks, with GDP projected to shrink by 17% by 2070 under high-emission scenarios. For India, the loss could reach nearly 25%, highlighting the urgent need for mitigation.
Emission Trends
Six major emitters—the US, EU, China, Russia, Japan, and India—account for 74% of global CO₂ emissions. While India’s per capita emissions remain low at 2.1 tonnes, the US leads with 14.3 tonnes per person.
Shifting US Policies
US climate policy has swung sharply—withdrawal under Trump weakened targets, while Biden’s administration revived efforts through the Inflation Reduction Act. These shifts have major global consequences.
The Road Ahead
COP 30 must reinforce commitments, particularly from developed nations with historic responsibilities. Brazil and India, with low per capita emissions, can lead coalitions of developing nations to push for fairer climate action under the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities.”
COP 30 represents a vital opportunity to restore trust, strengthen pledges, and keep the Paris goals within reach.
